Targeting Ohio-5

First of all, I apologize for the length of this diary.  I started researching this Congressional District and ran into a lot of information, and have apparently tried to include it all here ?

Yahoo News – Fri Sep 14, 8:48 PM ET – Elections set to fill seat of Ohio rep.

http://news.yahoo.co…

COLUMBUS, Ohio – “Gov. Ted Strickland on Friday set Nov. 6 and Dec. 11 as the dates for special primary and general elections to pick a successor to U.S. Rep. Paul Gillmor, a Republican who died earlier this month.

Gillmor died in an apparent fall down the stairs at his suburban Washington apartment.

The 5th District covers all or parts of 16 northwest Ohio counties, stretching from suburban Toledo to northern Ashland County.

The primary on Nov. 6 coincides with this year’s general election. The Dec. 11 election will determine the winner, who would face election again in November 2008 to retain the seat.

So far, only two candidates have announced that they will be in the race.

State Rep. Bob Latta, who lost to Gillmor in a 1988 Republican primary by 27 votes, said he will run for the seat. Latta’s father, Republican Rep. Delbert Latta, represented the district from 1959 to 1989.

Democrat Robin Weirauch, who works in economic and community research at Bowling Green State University, also will make another bid for the seat. She lost to Gillmor in 2004 and 2006. No Democrat has held the seat since the 1930s.”

The Ohio Daily Blog notes that more candidates may join in on the Republican and Democratic side:
http://www.ohiodaily…

From everything I have read online it looks like this is a strongly Republican seat and Republicans think they have the district in the bag:

http://rothenbergpol…
“The 5th District gave President Bush over 60% in the 2004 election, and, though Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown carried the district in 2006, Republicans start with a significant advantage.”

and from the wingnut Human Events: “Will it Be ‘Rep. Gillmor II’ Or ‘Rep. Latta II’?”
http://www.humaneven… 

Despite the Republicans’ confidence in holding onto this district, I think the Democratic Party should make a valiant effort to be competitive here in the upcoming special election.  Several reasons come to mind re. why we should make an effort here and I will outline these reasons below.  Before going there, however, I wanted to give a few basic stats re. the district:

This district voted 61.0% for Bush and 38.5% for Kerry in 2004 (see map for break-down by county).  In 2000 it was Bush 57.5%, Gore 39.2%.  However, the 2000 numbers apply to the old district boundaries, and cannot be compared directly to the 2004 numbers.  Ohio Republicans made the district more Republican in redistricting, by approx. 2.1 pts., by taking out all or parts of relatively more Democratic Ottawa, Erie and Lorain counties, while adding all or parts of more Republican Ashland, Crawford, Wyandot and Fulton counties.  In 1996, again under the old boundaries, Bill Clinton lost to Bob Dole here by only 2 pts. (44-42).

There are 16 counties wholly or partially in the current district.  The district can be divided geographically and politically into roughly two parts:

The eastern part includes Toledo suburbs and all areas east – including Wood, Sandusky, Seneca, Huron, Crawford counties and parts of Lucas, Wyandot and Ashland counties. The 5 counties –Wood, Sandusky, Seneca, Huron and the Lucas part comprise 50.3% of the district’s population according to 2000 Census.  These are the most Democratic counties in the district (all 5 voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, and for Sherrod Brown in the 2006 U.S. Senate race — in both instances differently from the 11 other counties in the current district — which voted Republican).  The more recently added counties here (Crawford, Wyandot, Ashland) have 10.9% of district’s population.  This eastern area has also been the political base of long-term Rep. Gillmor and his politically active wife Karen Gillmor.  Both Paul and Karen Gillmor at one point also represented a State Senate district centered on Seneca and Sandusky counties. 

The western part of the district encompasses all or parts of Williams, Fulton, Defiance, Henry, Paulding, Putnam, Van Vert and Mercer counties and 38.7% of the district’s population.  This area is also relatively more Republican than the rest of the district.

Now, to proceed to why we should take a look at seriously contesting here:

1) District is indeed quite Republican but Democratic candidates have won here in the recent past.  Additionally, Democrats have won even more Republican House seats in the recent past:

Despite winning only 5 counties here in 2006, Sherrod Brown actually carried this district with approx. 51% of the vote (Brown came within one point of winning in 3 other counties in the district).  It is interesting to note that Brown lost five Congressional Districts in Ohio, including OH-2.  Ted Strickland did even better here in his gubernatorial bid, winning by a 10 point margin (53.5-43.5) against Blackwell.  Strickland carried all but 3 counties in the district.  (Incidentally, OH-2 was the only congressional district Strickland lost.)

In 2006 Democrats won 8 seats (including 2 takeovers) in districts which are more Republican (using Bush’s 2004 numbers) than OH-5:

GA-8  Bush 61.3% Marshall 50.6%
IN-8  Bush 61.5% Ellsworth 60.7%
MS-4  Bush 68.3% Taylor 79.9%
MO-4  Bush 64.2% Skelton 67.7%
ND-AL  Bush 62.9% Pomeroy 65.7%
TX-17  Bush 69.9% Edwards 58.1%
TX-22  Bush 64.4% Lampson 51.8%
UT-2  Bush 66.1% Matheson 59.0%

Due to special circumstances surrounding Lampson’s victory, it really cannot be compared to anything else.  Ellsworth, however, ran against a scandal-free incumbent and won with over 60% of the vote in a district Bush won with over 60%.  In addition, many other seats not included on the above list are very, very Republican, yet continue to elect Democrats to Congress.  For example, SD-AL voted 59.9% for Bush, yet Herseth won with 69.1% in 2006.

2) Democratic candidate in last election made an unexpectedly decent showing here (despite being highly outspent):

The last time this district elected a Democrat was Frank Kniffin in 1936.  Since the 1938 election, only Republican congressmen have been elected here (Cliff Clevenger – served 1939-1959; Delbert Latta 1959-1989; Paul Gillmor 1989-2007).  Nevertheless, the Democratic nominee in 2006, Robin Weirauch won 43.1% of the vote here to Gillmor’s 56.9%.  Her 43.1% was an improvement of 10.2% over her result in 2004 when she challenged Gillmor for the first time: http://www.buckeyest…

http://www.buckeyest…
Weirauch’s 43.1% in 2006 occurred despite the fact that she was vastly outspent (569K for Gillmor to 117K for Weirauch;  http://www.opensecre…),
was running against an entrenched incumbent, and the fact that the race was not at all targeted by the Democratic Party.  Her 43.1% was also the highest Democratic U.S. House percentage in the district since 1982.

Weirauch’s November 2006 percentage was also higher than the Democratic percentage in the following seats which received more attention: CO-4 (Paccione, D 42.8; Musgrave, R 45.9; Eidsness, Reform 11.3); MN-6 (Wetterling D, 42.1; Bachmann, R 50.1; Binkowski, Independence 7.8%); NE-1 (Moul, D 41.3; Fortenberry, R 58.8); OH-12 (Shamansky, D 41.9; Tiberi, R 58.1); VA-10 (Feder, D 41.0; Wolf, R 57.3; two others 1.7) and came close to other targeted seats (CA-50, Busby 43.4; FL-9, Busansky 44.1; KY-4, Lucas 43.4 to name a few).  Granted, not all of these seats were the “top tier” in 2006.  Ken Lucas certainly was from what I remember.  On the other hand, after having lost in a June 2006 special election, Francine Busby, was no longer at the top of the Democratic lists for November.  Also, as you can see, there were a few third party candidates in some of these races to complicate the picture.  Nevertheless, unknown Weirauch clearly did better than some of the Democrats in these first and second tier races — fellow Ohio candidate Shamansky (in a one-on-one race with Tiberi) stands out among them.

It should also be noted that OH-2 which voted 63.9% for Bush in 2004, came within 2 points of electing a Democratic congressperson both in the 2005 special – Paul Hackett 48.4% and in 2006 – Victoria Wulsin 49.3%.  In a theoretical universe, with all other things being even, if OH-2 was as Democratic as OH-5 (61.0% for Bush in 2004 – a difference of 2.9% less Republican than OH-2) then Hackett and Wulsin would have made it over the top.  Of course, we can’t compare apples and oranges here (and the unique issue of Jean Schmidt being such a divisive figure), but looking at just the sheer numbers, OH-5 may not be as hopeless as the Republicans would like us to believe.

3) District is now open seat and so anything can happen:

Open seats have a way of sometimes producing unexpected results.  The Paul Hackett race in OH-2 is a good example.  Although Hackett didn’t win, he came very close in that very Republican district.  Here’s two names mentioned above in discussing Democrats representing very Republican districts:  Stephanie Herseth (SD-AL) originally won in a special 2004 election to replace Republican Bill Janklow.  Gene Taylor succeeded a Republican in MS-4 via a special election in 1989 in a district that has not supported the Democratic presidential candidate since 1956.  Also in 1989, Jill Long (a relatively unknown university lecturer) won a previously Republican-held and politically very Republican seat in IN-4 in a special election.  (IN-4 was relabeled as IN-3 in 2002 and incidentally adjoins OH-5 directly to the west.  Democrat Tom Hayhurst made a great showing here in 2006 — 45.7% against Rep. Mark Souder in a district which Bush carried by 68.3% in 2004).  Although a Republican vs. Republican race, the recent upset in GA-10 also comes to mind in what can happen in a special election.

4) Republican candidates here may not be as strong as the Republicans would like us to believe, especially if they get into a nasty primary fight:

According to the Ohio Daily Blog (http://www.ohiodaily…): “The roster on the GOP side is much longer. A pair of term-limited long-time rivals, State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) and State Sen. Randy Gardner (R-Bowling Green), are almost certainly in the race. The Columbus Dispatch blog The Daily Briefing reports that State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) and State Rep. Lynn Wachtmann (R-Napoleon) are on the verge of jumping in, and Wood County Commissioner Tim W. Brown (R) and former State Rep. Rex Damschroder (R-Fremont) are considering running as well. The Wall Street Journal also mentions State Rep. Mark Wagner (R-Ottawa Hills) and former State Rep. Jim Hoops (R) as possible candidates. The deceased Congressman’s widow, former State Senator Dr. Karen L. Gillmor (R), has indicated that she will not run, but Joe Hallett of the Dispatch seems to think that she may change her mind.

In this kind of accelerated race with a large field of candidates, name recognition is probably the factor most likely to determine the outcome. Wierauch would appear to be in a good position due to her two recent campaigns. However, Bob Latta shares in his father’s name recognition and was previously a state senator and Wood County Commissioner. Lynn Wachtmann and Steve Buehrer have each served as State Senator in a district that accounts for about 40% of the 5th Congressional District. And, of course, as widow of the former Congressman Karen Gillmor has as much name recognition as anyone.”

So it seems like several Republicans may be running in the primary here, which may cause an intra-party battle.  Even if just one candidate emerges and there’s no fight, not all of the Republicans are universally beloved.  Even Latta in his last election in 2006 won in his House District (which corresponds almost exactly to Wood Co. and approximately 19% of OH-5 population) with only 56.9% of the vote, despite having represented the area for years. 

On the Democratic side, according to the Ohio Daily Blog, “Two-time challenger Robin Wierauch (D-Napoleon), the assistant director of the Center for Regional Development at Bowling Green State University, is definitely in the race. Weirauch got 43% of the vote against Gillmor in 2006 and 33% in 2004. She and her advisors have been hoping that there would be no primary on the Democratic side, but I have been told that there are at least two other Democrats are seriously considering a bid. One is Appellate Judge James R. Sherck (D-Fremont), who ran unsuccessfully against Gillmor’s predecessor Delbert Latta (R) four times from 1978 to 1984. The other is Mike Grandillo (D-Tiffin), a city councilman and vice president at Tiffin University.”

It looks like Wood Co. may be of central importance here as many of the candidates have ties to the Bowling Green area.  It should be noted that Wood was Weirauch’s strongest county in 2006; she received 49% of the vote there.  (If you compare the maps of the 2006 U.S. House and 2006 U.S. Senate elections, you will notice that Weirauch, despite getting 43.1% district-wide, seemed to under-perform in Seneca and Sandusky because it was Gillmor’s base area.  Whereas Ted Strickland did as good or better in Seneca and Sandusky than in Wood Co., Weirauch performed significantly worse in Seneca and Sandusky compared to Wood Co.  Looking at another map, you can see that Weirauch out-performed John Kerry in all but 2 counties – Seneca and Sandusky – because of those counties  ties to Gillmor.)

Weirauch wrote several editorials published in the Toledo Blade, criticizing Rep. Gillmor for supposedly living outside the district with only a token address within the district so that he could claim residency – this factor may have contributed to Weirauch doing as good as she did (in addition to the Democratic wave in Ohio in 2006), and would not be of help to us when running against a truly local Republican candidate – so there are pluses and minuses here. 

You can also get coverage of this race on the Buckeye Blog: http://www.buckeyest…

Two recent posts:
http://www.buckeyest…

  http://www.buckeyest…

Part of writing this diary was to discuss a potential Weirauch candidacy and to discuss the other potential Democratic candidates.  Although I think that Weirauch was impressive in 2006, I am not necessarily advocating for her candidacy – I just don’t know enough about the dynamics here.  I am not from Ohio, so would definitely appreciate local opinion on this subject.  I do think, however, that we may be able to make this district competitive.

5) Ohio is becoming more competitive overall and putting up a strong candidate here for the special may help us along the road, especially in November 2008:

As we all know, Ohio will be one of the keys to winning in 2008.  The state is clearly moving our way (no need for a long discussion of this; we can all see the recent trends).  We will probably be looking at several competitive House races next year ?
http://ohio2006elect…

here’s another recent story re. OH-15 and the state of the local Republican party http://ohio15th.blog…

The key to us winning a U.S. House race in OH-5 would be to really, really energize our base. A very energized base, even if relatively small numerically, can be a potent tool to increase our voting power.  Winning here, or even coming close, might be beneficial to us in the near and long term future, particularly in November of next year.  Things like voting lists, party contacts, and other means to expand and keep track of Democratic voters are always useful. But also simply an increased level of participation from Democrats in this relatively “red” part of an increasingly “blue” state like Ohio may prove to be of great importance to us as we move towards 2008.

So, this is how I see OH-5.  I don’t know if we will win here in the special election, but I certainly see signs that it may be possible.  Despite Republican crowing that their candidates would be shoo-ins, we should still take at least a long look at this district.